Maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026 priced at 31.6% on Kalshi, down 7.6 points, on $2.1M traded

WTI threshold probability falls

Kalshi’s contract on whether the maximum WTI front-month settlement price will reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026 was priced at 31.6% as of Oct 22, 2026 at 9:54 AM ET. The reported probability was down 7.6 percentage points, with $2.1M traded.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appears on its finance board within a finance/commodities category. The board measures probability changes over the preceding 24 hours and reports total traded volume where the listing venue supplies it.

The question concerns the maximum settlement price reached by the deadline, rather than simply the settlement price on Dec 31, 2026. The supplied material does not include the contract’s complete resolution rules or identify a catalyst for the probability decline.

How the board puts the move in context

According to PredictionBubbles, its finance page tracks 195 open markets: 24 from Kalshi and 171 from Polymarket. Coverage includes interest-rate decisions, inflation, GDP, recession outcomes, indexes and commodity levels.

The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. Its volume rankings are separate from its rankings of absolute probability changes over the last 24 hours, so trading activity and repricing measure different aspects of a market.

For comparison, PredictionBubbles identifies the Polymarket contract on no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting as the finance board’s most-traded market at its last refresh, with $15.8M traded. The site aggregates venue prices; it does not accept wagers, hold funds or provide accounts.

What it means for prediction markets

• The repricing is toward a lower likelihood of the threshold being reached. The 31.6% reading and 7.6-point decline describe changing market expectations, not an established oil-price outcome.
• Settlement criteria matter. A maximum front-month settlement question should not be treated as interchangeable with an intraday-price or year-end-price question. The full resolution rules are not supplied here.
• Volume is not certainty. The $2.1M figure represents total reported trading, not evidence that the market’s probability will prove accurate.
• Cross-venue comparisons require care. PredictionBubbles says related Kalshi and Polymarket contracts can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines; its 15-minute refresh also means displayed probabilities may lag trading.