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Marseille’s win contract on Kalshi was priced at 1.0%, down 47 percentage points, with $776K traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ board snapshot published Oct 22, 2026, at 3:24 PM ET. Its movers and sports boards placed the contract second among the board’s largest downward moves.
A sharp move, with limited event detail
PredictionBubbles measures probability changes over the preceding 24 hours. The Marseille reading therefore represents a substantial reduction in traders’ implied likelihood of a win, rather than a 47% relative decline in the contract’s price.
The supplied material does not identify Marseille’s opponent, the competition, the event date or the contract’s settlement terms. It also provides no explanation for the repricing, leaving the move’s specific catalyst unconfirmed.
Reading the board
According to PredictionBubbles, its sports page tracks 566 open markets: 203 from Kalshi and 363 from Polymarket. The embedded display includes the 300 largest by traded volume, while the full sports board covers all 566. The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, although trading on the exchanges continues between updates.
The site distinguishes price movement from trading activity: its movers rankings use absolute probability changes over 24 hours, while its volume rankings use total traded volume. Marseille’s $776K figure is thus a cumulative trading measure, not a statement of how much traded during the decline.
PredictionBubbles displays exchange-published prices rather than accepting wagers or holding customer funds. It also cautions that related contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket can have different wording and resolution rules, limiting direct comparisons.
What it means for prediction markets
The price is not a result: The 1.0% reading expresses a trader-set implied probability; it does not establish that the contract has resolved.
Volume and movement answer different questions: The 47-point decline measures repricing over 24 hours, while $776K records total traded volume.
Contract details remain essential: Without the event identity and settlement terms, the supplied information cannot establish what drove the decline or whether another venue offers a comparable contract.
The snapshot can lag trading: PredictionBubbles’ 15-minute refresh cycle means its displayed probability may differ from the exchange’s latest price.