Mariano Navone wins priced at 1.0% on Kalshi, down 37.0 points, on $1.2M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Navone win contract among its biggest downward sports moves, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead. It has zero…
The Kalshi contract on a Mariano Navone win was priced at 1.0%, down 37.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $1.2M traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers listing. The figures accompanied an update published Oct 26, 2026 · 11:24 AM ET.
PredictionBubbles placed the contract among its largest downward sports moves. The supplied material does not identify the underlying competition, the contract’s settlement conditions or a specific development behind the repricing.
How the move is measured
The board’s venue-price snapshot was taken on 26 Oct 2026, 15:14 UTC. According to PredictionBubbles, its data comes from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes. Rankings measure changes over 24 hours in probability points, rather than relative percentages.
The board covers 1,999 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures. PredictionBubbles says this filter keeps rapid, settlement-driven swings from dominating the rankings. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify.
What the trading figure establishes
The $1.2M traded provides context for Navone’s decline, but volume does not determine a contract’s position on the movers board. PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by the size of their probability-point change, treating trading activity as a separate measure.
The available information establishes a sharp fall in the market’s pricing, not its cause. It also does not provide order-book depth or enough event detail to determine whether the change reflected new information, trading pressure or another driver.
What it means for prediction markets
- The unit matters: The decline was 37.0 probability points, not a 37.0% relative drop.
- Price is not settlement: A 1.0% market-implied probability does not establish that the contract has resolved.
- Volume is only part of the context: The reported $1.2M traded does not, by itself, establish available liquidity.
- The ranking has limits: Navone’s placement reflects the board’s eligibility rules and 24-hour window, rather than a comparison with every sports contract.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
Related
- Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting priced at 7.5% on Polymarket, up 2.0 points, on $16.1M traded
- Mike Brown be out before Oct 25, 2027 priced at 24.0% on Kalshi, down 5.0 points, on $10K traded
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 39.0% on Polymarket, up 3.5 points, on $910K traded
- Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or priced at 61.0% on Polymarket, down 5.5 points, on $112K traded
- An AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026 priced at 15.5% on Polymarket, down 5.0 points, on $232K traded
- Valentin Vacherot wins priced at 99.0% on Kalshi, up 32.0 points, on $844K traded