Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027 priced at 1.8% on Polymarket, down 3.4 points, on $602K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether Lee Jae-myung will be arrested before 2027 was priced at 1.8%, down 3.4 probability points over 24 hours, with $602K traded in the supplied Oct 27, 2026 update.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining markets in its politics/election category. The move signals a lower market-implied likelihood of an arrest before the deadline, rather than evidence of a change in Lee’s legal circumstances.

How the move is measured

PredictionBubbles ranks contracts by their absolute 24-hour change in probability points, not their relative percentage change. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot recorded venue data on 27 Oct 2026 at 08:43 UTC.

The ranking covered 2,049 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier price comparison qualify, while volume and liquidity provide context without affecting rank.

What the figures leave unresolved

The supplied material identifies no news event or legal development behind the Lee contract’s decline. It also does not provide the contract’s detailed settlement rules or order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about either the catalyst or the market’s liquidity.

The $602K traded figure is a separate measure from the 3.4-point price move. Without a stated period for that contract-specific volume, it should not be treated as the amount traded during the same 24-hour window.

What it means for prediction markets

• Low, but not zero: The 1.8% price reflects a small market-implied chance of arrest before 2027, not a settled outcome.
• Points matter: The decline is 3.4 probability points, not a 3.4% relative decrease.
• Causation remains unclear: The board documents repricing; the supplied reporting does not establish why traders changed their assessment.