Kalshi prices Bitcoin below $80,000 in October at 62%

Kalshi contracts put the probability of Bitcoin trading below $80,000 during October at 62%, according to cryptotimes.io. The next steps down the October ladder were priced at 39% for below $77,500 and 22% for below $75,000, with approximately $244,836 traded in the downside market.

October’s downside ladder

Bitcoin traded near $82,418 on October 12. At the more precise snapshot price of $82,418.73 cited by cryptotimes.io, it was roughly $2,419, or about 2.9%, above $80,000. Kalshi assigned progressively smaller probabilities to deeper declines: 13% for below $72,500, 8% for below $70,000, 6% for below $67,500 and 2% for below $65,000.

Kalshi’s displayed probability changes showed declines across several downside contracts. The below-$80,000 reading had fallen six percentage points; the $77,500, $75,000 and $72,500 readings were lower by seven, eight and seven points, respectively. Those changes indicate that the reported likelihood of crossing these thresholds had eased, even though $80,000 remained the leading unresolved downside level.

Polymarket assigns higher downside probabilities

Polymarket priced a touch of $80,000 at 72%, compared with Kalshi’s 62% for trading below that level. Its probabilities for reaching $77,500, $75,000 and $72,500 were 45%, 28% and 18%, respectively. Bitcoin had already reached the market’s $82,500 threshold, which had settled as Yes, according to cryptotimes.io.

The platforms also differed in their displayed changes. Polymarket’s $80,000 probability was down three percentage points, but its $77,500, $75,000 and $72,500 readings had increased eight, five and two points. Polymarket’s downside probabilities exceeded Kalshi’s by 10 percentage points at $80,000, six points at both $77,500 and $75,000, and five points at $72,500—although touching a price and trading below it are not identically worded events.

Upside trading draws more volume

Kalshi priced Bitcoin trading above $87,500 at 48%, down 24 percentage points on its displayed change indicator, and above $90,000 at 32%, down 18 points. Higher thresholds carried probabilities of 18% at $92,500, 8% at $95,000 and 5% at $97,500. Its October upside market had approximately $706,761 in volume, nearly three times the downside market’s activity; that volume difference alone does not establish a bullish or bearish preference.

Polymarket likewise assigned 18% to reaching $92,500, while its $97,500 probability was 8%. From approximately $82,418, Bitcoin would need gains of roughly 9.2% to reach $90,000, 12.2% to reach $92,500 and 18.3% to reach $97,500. Polymarket’s 28% probability for $75,000—a target more than $7,000 below that reference price—was 10 percentage points above its probability for $92,500.

What it means for prediction markets

• The leading downside threshold is not a forecast of the closing price. Kalshi’s 62% reading concerns Bitcoin trading below $80,000 during October, rather than necessarily ending the month there.
• Contract wording matters in cross-platform comparisons. Polymarket’s touch targets and Kalshi’s below-price thresholds show different probabilities, but are not identically defined.
• Deeper declines remain less likely in both ladders. Kalshi’s probabilities drop from 62% below $80,000 to 22% below $75,000; Polymarket’s corresponding readings fall from 72% to 28%.
• Upside agreement is strongest around $92,500. Both platforms priced that October threshold at 18%, while Kalshi’s larger upside trading volume measures activity, not directional conviction.