Kalshi prices an October hike two ways on its own board: 30.8% in one market, 31.5% in another

Kalshi’s board showed two different prices for an October hike: 30.8% in one market and 31.5% in another, according to DeFi Rate.

One outcome, two prices

DeFi Rate flagged the discrepancy between two contracts on the same venue that settle on the same October outcome. The distinction is therefore between Kalshi markets, rather than between competing platforms.

The report, published Oct 15, 2026 · 8:39 AM ET, described the pricing detail as new to its coverage that day, saying it had not appeared in any earlier edition.

The source page was unavailable. The supplied summary does not identify the contracts or provide their full settlement terms, liquidity or trading history, leaving the reason for the price difference unresolved.

What it means for prediction markets

• Contract choice matters: The reported probability was 30.8% or 31.5%, depending on which Kalshi market was used.
• The discrepancy needs context: Without the underlying contract details and trading data, the available material does not establish why the two prices differed or whether the gap persisted.