Kalshi and Polymarket eyeing ~$20bn valuations in new funding rounds

Kalshi and Polymarket are discussing fresh funding with potential investors at valuations approaching $20bn (£15bn) each, according to Wall Street Journal reporting cited by EGR Intel and republished by GambleRss. Negotiations remain preliminary, and neither privately held company is assured of securing that valuation.

New funding ambitions follow major investments

Kalshi’s December Series E raised $1bn at an $11bn valuation, part of a wave of investment in both platforms toward the end of 2025. Paradigm led the round, with Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Meritech Capital and IVP participating. Less than two months earlier, Kalshi had raised $300m in a round that enabled expansion into more than 140 countries, according to EGR Intel.

Polymarket received a $2bn investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) around the same period, valuing it at more than $8bn. EGR Intel also reported that Polymarket, unavailable in the US since 2022, acquired Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed QCEX to accelerate its return.

The fundraising discussions contrast with falling valuations among listed sports betting operators facing pressure from prediction markets. According to EGR Intel, Flutter’s shares have declined more than 60% over the past six months, leaving its market capitalisation at $19.7bn. DraftKings has fallen 45.2% over the same period, with a market capitalisation of $12.4bn.

Market conduct and regulatory challenges

Both platforms faced scrutiny earlier this month over contracts connected to US and Israeli strikes on Iran. EGR Intel reported that six Polymarket users earned a combined $1.2m on a market concerning the timing of a US strike on Iran, raising concerns about possible insider trading. That market was created in December 2025.

Kalshi separately faced criticism after declining to pay out trades on whether former Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office by a specified date. CEO Tarek Mansour said on X that the platform would not make payouts on markets involving death; trades in the market were refunded, according to EGR Intel.

State-level opposition also remains significant. In January, a Massachusetts judge issued a temporary injunction preventing Kalshi from offering sports-related event contracts in the state without a gaming licence. In November, a Nevada judge overturned an earlier injunction that had permitted Kalshi to continue operating during a prolonged dispute with the state regulator, EGR Intel reported.

Regulators in Tennessee and Connecticut have sent cease-and-desist orders to prediction-market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, in recent months. Polymarket also received a cease-and-desist order from the Netherlands Gambling Authority last month, according to EGR Intel.

What it means for prediction markets

• Valuations remain provisional. The reported $20bn figures are fundraising targets under discussion, not completed transaction values.
• Access remains a separate question. Investor interest does not resolve the court orders, licensing disputes or regulatory objections described in the reporting.
• Settlement rules matter. The Iran-related controversies highlight distinct risks around suspected information advantages and how platforms treat contracts involving a death.
• Comparisons require care. The proposed private-company valuations are being discussed alongside Flutter’s and DraftKings’ public-market capitalisations, rather than confirmed funding outcomes.