Kalshi 15-Minute Gold Markets Out-Traded Ether in September

Kalshi’s new 15-minute gold contracts surpassed their Ether equivalents in September, with 542 million contracts traded versus 318 million for ETH, according to crypto.news, citing Predict Charts. Gold’s count was roughly 70% higher despite an August launch. Predict Charts estimated fees of roughly $5 million for gold and $2.6 million for Ether; Bitcoin remained the leader at an estimated $60.4 million, more than 12 times gold’s figure. Those estimates come from Kalshi trade records, not company-reported revenue.

Gold gains ground quickly

Kalshi’s market pages indicate that the gold contracts were trading by Aug. 7, according to crypto.news. Traders take positions on whether gold will end each 15-minute interval above or below a specified reference level, with settlement determined using Pyth pricing data. Pyth was selected earlier this year for commodity products covering gold, silver, oil and agricultural commodities. Ether had more time to build activity: Kalshi began expanding short-duration crypto contracts in late 2025, ETH trading accelerated through 2026, and crypto.news reported that five-to-15-minute Bitcoin and Ether markets were already a substantial part of prediction-platform crypto activity by March.

The broader commodity category also grew rapidly. In a Sept. 8 announcement, Kalshi said it had accumulated $400 million in commodity trading volume within seven months—roughly half the time its crypto category needed to reach that level. The company said commodities produced more than four times crypto’s volume at the equivalent stage of development. That dollar measure is distinct from September’s 542 million gold contract count. Kalshi’s commodity range includes gold, silver, oil, copper and agricultural products, using designated external prices for settlement. A Sept. 25 gold market retrieved by crypto.news showed more than $386,000 in volume in one 15-minute interval; other individual intervals recorded tens of thousands of dollars.

Short windows, substantial fees

InGame’s analysis, reported Tuesday and cited by crypto.news, put fees from 15-minute crypto, commodity and financial markets at $20.4 million over the seven days through Oct. 5. That represented roughly 80% of the estimated $25.1 million in fees from all non-sports markets during the period. Across Kalshi as a whole, the same short-duration products accounted for 13% of volume but 20% of fees. Estimated daily fees from those products reached at least $3 million on four days, including $3.3 million on one Friday.

Pricing helps explain that disproportionate contribution. Kalshi says transaction fees depend on a contract’s expected earnings; Predict Charts says the effective fee rate is highest near a 50-cent price and declines toward either end of the price range. InGame linked part of the fee contribution to short-window price contracts often trading near even odds. Its analysis also found that non-sports markets generated more than 25% of Kalshi’s estimated September fee revenue. Their year-to-date share through Oct. 6 was 19.2%, versus 11% in 2025. Crypto remained the largest fee contributor among 15-minute products, with daily fees rising from below $10,000 in January to more than $2 million during September.

Expansion beyond event contracts

Kalshi’s separate crypto perpetual futures business exceeded $5.5 billion in volume within two weeks of launching earlier this year, according to crypto.news. The company subsequently attributed unusually high Ether perpetual activity to liquidity programs after questions arose about that volume. Those instruments are not the 15-minute ETH event contracts represented by September’s 318 million figure.

Further commodity expansion is pending. Kalshi said in September that it had filed for perpetual contracts linked to gold, silver and platinum and intended to introduce them, without specifying a firm launch date. Separately, crypto.news reported that Kalshi was discussing roughly $1 billion in new funding at a valuation close to $40 billion, following a $22 billion valuation earlier in 2026. The latest report did not confirm a completed financing.

What it means for prediction markets

• Compare like with like. Gold exceeded Ether in September’s 15-minute contract count, but Bitcoin remained far ahead in estimated fees. Contract counts, dollar volume and fees describe different aspects of activity.
• Fee contribution is not proportional to volume. The seven-day figures through Oct. 5 show short-duration markets producing a larger share of fees than trading volume, with near-even-odds pricing helping explain the difference.
• Settlement rules remain central. Gold outcomes depend on the specified reference level and Pyth data, rather than an unspecified measure of gold’s price.
• Pending products are not live markets. The gold, silver and platinum perpetual filings indicate planned expansion, not a confirmed launch date; perpetual activity should remain separate from event-contract comparisons.