Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election priced at 85.9% on Polymarket, down 2.8 points, on $236K traded

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins’ contract to win the 2026 Alaska governor election was priced at 85.9% on Polymarket, down 2.8 probability points, with $236K traded, according to the supplied market update. PredictionBubbles placed the contract among its declining political markets.

A decline from a high implied probability

The update, published Oct 27, 2026 · 8:54 PM ET, described PredictionBubbles’ board as unchanged at its Oct. 28, 00:12 UTC read. The supplied source page carries a later venue-data timestamp of 28 Oct 2026, 00:42 UTC, but its extracted text does not show the individual Alaska contract entry.

The reported price still assigns a high market-implied probability to a Kreiss-Tomkins victory. The decline measures a shift in traders’ pricing over 24 hours; the supplied material identifies no Alaska-specific news, polling or other catalyst explaining it.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes and orders contracts by the magnitude of their 24-hour probability-point changes. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ordering.

The supplied snapshot covers 1,998 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Its table displays the top 150 of 484 markets that moved at least one probability point, excluding contracts without a valid 24-hour comparison. That makes the board a measure of repricing within a defined market universe, rather than a comprehensive election forecast.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: The 2.8-point fall signals lower pricing over the measurement window, while 85.9% remains a high implied probability.
• Volume does not establish depth: The reported $236K traded provides activity context, but the supplied material does not establish the Alaska contract’s order-book liquidity.
• The cause remains unverified: Neither a specific catalyst nor an updated Alaska price at the later source-page timestamp is available in the supplied text.