Jaguars surge clear in AFC South at 72-73%

Jacksonville’s position as the AFC South favourite has strengthened, with the Jaguars priced at 72% on Kalshi and 73% on Polymarket in the Oct 12, 2026 update. Houston trails at 16% and 14%, respectively, according to iPredicta’s market coverage and the accompanying summary.

The Jaguars’ two-venue average has risen 10 percentage points since the Oct 5, 2026 reading. iPredicta recorded the latest prices on Oct 12, 2026 at 10:48 UTC; its change measure tracks the average across the exchanges, rather than the movement on either platform alone.

A widening lead after September’s reversal

The latest figures extend a shift already visible on Sept 29, 2026. According to iPredicta, Jacksonville then stood at 52.5% on Kalshi and 54.5% on Polymarket, measured using the midpoint between the best bid and ask. Houston was at 22.5% and 20.5%, with Indianapolis within roughly a point of the Texans on both venues.

That September update also corrected a stale table. iPredicta said its AFC South figures had remained frozen at the Sept 13 reading for sixteen days because its system retained the last valid rows when the market leader no longer matched the accompanying text. The outdated display had shown Houston leading at 45% and 47%; the outlet said its other division tables continued to update normally.

Agreement on the favourite, limits to the snapshot

Both exchanges now give Jacksonville a substantial advantage. iPredicta places Houston and Indianapolis close together behind the Jaguars, although the supplied latest figures do not include an exact probability for the Colts. Jacksonville finished the 2025 regular season at 13-4, compared with Houston’s 12-5.

The Polymarket AFC South market had recorded $38,717 in lifetime trading at the latest reading, with its contract probabilities adding up to 100.4%, according to iPredicta. Those details provide context for the headline percentages, but the supplied material does not establish a specific on-field cause for Jacksonville’s latest increase.

What it means for prediction markets

• The exchanges agree on Jacksonville: 72% on Kalshi and 73% on Polymarket indicate little disagreement over the favourite.
• The weekly move is an average: The 10-point increase refers to the combined two-venue measure since Oct 5, not necessarily a 10-point gain on each exchange.
• Historical comparisons require care: The corrected Sept 29 figures are a more reliable reference than the table that continued displaying Sept 13 prices.
• A strong favourite is not a settled outcome: Houston and Indianapolis remain alternatives, while the quoted prices represent a dated market snapshot rather than a guarantee.