Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 59.5% on Polymarket

Ceasefire odds fall, but remain above even

Polymarket priced the prospect of the Israel–Iran ceasefire continuing through November 30 at 59.5%, according to the supplied market summary published Oct 18, 2026, at 3:24 PM ET. The probability fell 5 percentage points, with $594K traded.

The decline indicates a weaker market assessment of the ceasefire lasting through the deadline. Even after the move, however, the quoted probability remained above 50%.

Reading the market snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers dashboard measures changes over 24 hours in percentage points, rather than relative percentages. It draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page identifies its venue-data snapshot as 18 Oct 2026, 19:42 UTC.

The source excerpt explains the dashboard’s methodology but does not include the individual ceasefire-market entry. The 59.5% probability, 5-point decline and $594K trading figure therefore come from the supplied summary; the material does not establish what prompted the repricing or provide the contract’s settlement criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction is clear; cause is not. The price moved against ceasefire continuation, but the supplied material identifies no diplomatic or military development behind that change.
• Volume is context, not a liquidity measure. The $594K traded figure does not establish order-book depth or how much trading drove the decline.
• The deadline and rules matter. The quoted probability concerns continuation through November 30. Without settlement criteria, it should not be treated as a broader estimate of regional peace.