Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 52.5% on Polymarket, up 5.0 points, on $711K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the November 30 Israel-Iran ceasefire contract among its upward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the…
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The Polymarket contract on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 was priced at 52.5%, up 5.0 probability points over 24 hours, with $711K traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the upward moves in its political/election category.
The snapshot puts the ceasefire outcome slightly above an even chance in market pricing. It records a shift in traders’ expectations, rather than independent confirmation of developments affecting the ceasefire.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles’ underlying venue data was timestamped 29 Oct 2026, 07:04 UTC, ahead of the story’s publication on Oct 29, 2026, at 3:09 AM ET. The service pulls prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and updates its rankings every 15 minutes.
According to PredictionBubbles, the board ranks changes over 24 hours in probability points, not relative percentages. Volume provides context but does not affect a contract’s position in the movement rankings.
What the snapshot leaves unanswered
The board covers 2,046 markets lasting longer than 14 days. Its displayed table contains the top 150 of 519 markets that moved at least one probability point, with same-week fixtures excluded and a valid day-old price comparison required for inclusion.
The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the ceasefire contract’s rise or provide its settlement criteria. The $711K trading figure adds activity context, but the material does not establish the contract’s order-book depth or explain which developments traders were responding to.
What it means for prediction markets
A narrow lean: At 52.5%, pricing favors the ceasefire continuing through November 30, but remains close to evenly divided.
Movement is not verification: The 5.0-point gain captures repricing over 24 hours; it does not establish that the ceasefire’s underlying prospects improved.
Activity and liquidity differ: The $711K traded figure should not be treated as a measure of market depth.
Resolution details remain important: Without the contract’s settlement criteria, the snapshot alone cannot establish precisely what would qualify as the ceasefire continuing.