Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 priced at 47.5% on Polymarket, down 13 points, on $626K traded

Ceasefire contract falls below 50%

Polymarket’s contract on whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 was priced at 47.5%, down 13 probability points, with $626K traded, according to the supplied market headline published Oct 21, 2026, at 5:24 PM ET.

According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the contract was among the largest downward moves in its political/election category. The decline puts the market-implied probability of the ceasefire continuing through the specified deadline below 50%.

What the ranking captures

PredictionBubbles ranks moves over 24 hours using probability-point changes rather than relative percentage changes. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes; the supplied page records a venue-data reading of 21 Oct 2026, 21:47 UTC.

The ranking covers 1,998 markets that live longer than 14 days, excluding short-lived fixtures whose price swings can primarily reflect settlement. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, and neither volume nor liquidity changes their position in the ranking.

The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic or military development behind the ceasefire contract’s decline. It also does not provide the contract’s resolution rules or order-book depth, limiting what can be concluded about either the trigger for the move or the market’s ability to absorb further trading.

What it means for prediction markets

• The change is in probability points: The 13-point decline measures a lower market-implied likelihood, not a 13% relative decrease.
• Turnover and liquidity are distinct: The reported $626K traded provides activity context but does not establish how deep the order book is.
• The price is not confirmation of events: A 47.5% reading describes traders’ pricing of the November 30 outcome; it does not establish that the ceasefire has ended or will end.
• Resolution terms remain important: Without the contract rules, the supplied material does not establish precisely which events would determine settlement.