Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 priced at 37.5% on Polymarket, down 5 points, on $1.2M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the December-dated ceasefire-continuation contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct…
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The Polymarket contract on whether the Israel–Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 was priced at 37.5%, down 5 probability points, with $1.2M traded. According to PredictionBubbles’ movers board, the December-dated contract was among the declining markets in its political/election category.
The figures accompanied the story published Oct 23, 2026, at 9:24 PM ET. PredictionBubbles listed its venue-data snapshot as 24 Oct 2026, 01:16 UTC; its board refreshes every 15 minutes.
What the decline measures
PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours in probability points, rather than relative percentages. The 5-point decline therefore represents a lower market-implied likelihood of ceasefire continuation through the contract’s deadline—not a 5% relative fall.
The board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and ranks eligible contracts by the size of their probability changes. Its stated coverage spans 1,975 markets lasting more than 14 days, excluding short-duration fixtures that could otherwise dominate as settlement approaches. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine the ranking.
What the data cannot establish
The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic announcement, military development or other specific catalyst for this contract’s decline. It documents a change in pricing, not evidence that the ceasefire has ended or will fail before December 31.
The $1.2M traded figure adds context, but the supplied contract details do not specify its measurement period or provide order-book depth. It therefore cannot, on its own, establish how much trading supported the latest 24-hour move.
What it means for prediction markets
Continuation is priced below an even chance: The 37.5% reading reflects the market’s assessment of the December 31 outcome at the reported snapshot.
Direction and cause are separate: The 5-point decline shows reduced confidence in continuation; the material does not establish why traders repriced it.
Contract terms remain important: The supplied text does not include the precise resolution criteria, limiting conclusions about which events would settle the market.
Turnover is not depth: The $1.2M traded figure should not be treated as a measure of available liquidity or trading specifically behind the latest decline.