Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026 priced at 12.5% on Polymarket, up 4.5 points, on $180K traded

Polymarket’s contract on an Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026 was priced at 12.5%, up 4.5 percentage points, with $180K traded in the supplied October 29 market update. According to PredictionBubbles’ accompanying summary, the contract appeared among the upward political moves on its movers board.

The increase represents a change in traders’ pricing, not confirmation of a coup attempt or evidence of a specific political development. The supplied material identifies no news catalyst for the move and provides no reporting on events inside Iran.

Reading the market snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, its movers board compares probabilities over 24 hours, updates every 15 minutes and draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. Rankings reflect the size of probability-point changes; trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not determine placement.

There is a timing distinction in the supplied material: the summary references an October 29, 23:41 UTC crawl, while the source page records a refresh at 29 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC. The reproduced page explains the board’s methodology but does not display the Iran contract’s individual entry, so it does not independently verify the headline’s price, move or volume.

What it means for prediction markets

• The outcome remains priced as unlikely: A 12.5% implied probability is still low despite the 4.5-point increase.
• Volume is not market depth: The reported $180K traded does not establish how much liquidity was available when prices changed.
• The catalyst remains unknown: The supplied material supports a report of repricing, not a conclusion that the underlying political risk has demonstrably increased.
• Resolution details matter: The deadline is December 31, 2026, but the supplied text does not include the contract’s criteria for what qualifies as a coup attempt.