Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 priced at 13.9% on Polymarket, up 4.0 points, on $2.0M traded

Polymarket traders priced a 13.9% probability that Iran would agree by December 31 to end uranium enrichment, with the contract rising 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours and showing $2.0M traded. The figures accompanied the Oct 26, 2026, 4:09 AM ET update.

According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among rising political markets on its movers board. The increase left the outcome priced as unlikely, despite the upward shift in traders’ expectations.

What the board captures

PredictionBubbles ranks changes using probability points rather than relative percentage gains. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot recorded venue data read on 26 Oct 2026, 07:39 UTC.

The rankings cover 2,037 markets running for more than 14 days. According to PredictionBubbles, only open contracts with a valid comparison against prices 24 hours earlier qualify, while short-lived fixtures are excluded to avoid settlement-driven swings dominating the results.

Repricing without a stated catalyst

The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic announcement, an Iranian policy change or another event explaining the enrichment contract’s rise. It establishes a change in market pricing, not confirmation that Iran has agreed to end enrichment.

PredictionBubbles also distinguishes price movement from trading activity: volume provides context but does not determine the movers ranking. The $2.0M traded figure therefore accompanies the 4.0-point increase without establishing what caused it or how much liquidity was available.

What it means for prediction markets

• Higher, but still unlikely: A 13.9% price indicates that traders continued to assign a low probability to an agreement by December 31.
• Points, not percent: The 4.0-point rise measures the change in implied probability, not a 4.0% relative increase.
• Evidence remains limited: The supplied reporting provides no catalyst or detailed settlement criteria, so the price move alone cannot establish diplomatic progress.