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Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026 priced at 24.5% on Polymarket Up 1.5 points on $675K traded, up 2.0 points since Oct. 23.

Bitcoin’s chance of dipping to $65,000 by December 31, 2026 was priced at 24.5% on Polymarket, up 1.5 percentage points, with $675K traded, in the supplied snapshot published Oct 24, 2026 at 1:09 PM ET.

A probability move, not a bitcoin price quote

The contract measures the likelihood of a specified bitcoin price event before a deadline—not bitcoin’s current value. According to predictionbubbles.net, its crypto tracker displays market-implied probabilities alongside changes over the previous 24 hours and total traded volume.

The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. The material therefore does not establish a fresh news catalyst for the increase in the contract’s probability.

Reading the tracker

According to predictionbubbles.net, the tracker covers 238 open crypto markets: 44 from Kalshi and 194 from Polymarket. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. A displayed probability is consequently a snapshot rather than a continuously updated quote.

The site also distinguishes trading activity from probability movement: its volume rankings and its rankings of absolute 24-hour probability changes measure different things. The $675K figure represents total traded volume, not the amount traded during the latest increase.

What it means for prediction markets

  • The 24.5% price places the bitcoin dip outcome below an even chance, despite the 1.5-percentage-point increase.
  • No fresh catalyst is established by the supplied reporting, limiting any explanation of why the odds moved.
  • Cross-venue comparisons require care: according to predictionbubbles.net, related contracts can have different wording and resolution rules.
  • The tracker’s 15-minute refresh cycle means displayed odds may lag trading on Polymarket.
BitcoinCryptoPolymarketPredictionMarkets

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/crypto/

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