Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election priced at 66.5% on Polymarket, down 15.0 points, on $1.3M traded

Iliana Iotova’s contract to win the next Bulgarian presidential election was priced at 66.5% on Polymarket, down 15.0 probability points, with $1.3M traded, according to the supplied market snapshot. PredictionBubbles’ movers board listed the contract among its largest downward political moves.

A sharp repricing, with limited context

The decline measures a change over 24 hours, rather than a 15.0% relative fall. Despite the retreat, the contract’s price continued to imply that an Iotova victory was more likely than not.

The supplied summary places the observation at Oct. 31, 04:55 UTC. The accompanying PredictionBubbles page instead carries a venue-data timestamp of 31 Oct 2026, 04:38 UTC. Its extracted text explains the board’s methodology but does not display the Iotova contract’s individual entry, limiting independent confirmation of the headline figures from that extract.

What the board measures

According to PredictionBubbles, its rankings compare market-implied probabilities over 24 hours and refresh every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. Markets are ordered by the size of their probability-point change; trading volume and liquidity do not affect their position.

The supplied material identifies no election development, poll or announcement behind Iotova’s decline. It also does not specify the period covered by the reported $1.3M in trading, so that figure should not be treated as the amount traded during the price drop.

What it means for prediction markets

• The direction is clear, the cause is not: The 15.0-point fall records a lower market assessment of Iotova’s chances, without establishing why traders changed their pricing.
• The level still matters: At 66.5%, the contract remained above the even-chance threshold despite its large downward move.
• Volume is not liquidity: The reported $1.3M traded does not establish order-book depth or how much trading drove the 24-hour repricing.
• Timing needs care: The summary and source extract carry different snapshot times; the figures should be read as a reported observation, not a continuously current price.