Hamas agree to disarm by December 31 priced at 7.0% on Polymarket, down 6.0 points, on $1.7M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Hamas disarmament contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category distinct from the lead. It has…
The Polymarket contract on whether Hamas will agree to disarm by December 31 was priced at 7.0%, down 6.0 percentage points, with $1.7M traded, in the supplied update published Oct 27, 2026 · 2:39 PM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among declining markets in its political/election category. The move reflects a lower market-implied probability of an agreement by the deadline—not confirmation of any change in Hamas’s position.
How the move is measured
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours using probability points rather than relative percentages. Its board draws prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes every 15 minutes; the supplied snapshot records venue data read on 27 Oct 2026, 18:08 UTC.
The board’s ranking universe covers 1,995 markets that remain live for more than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, and trading volume and liquidity provide context without affecting the movement rankings.
What the data does not establish
The supplied material does not identify a diplomatic announcement, negotiation development or other event behind the Hamas contract’s decline. It documents repricing, but does not establish its cause.
The $1.7M traded figure also should not be treated as a measure of liquidity available at the current price. The supplied update does not specify that figure’s time window or provide the contract’s detailed resolution criteria—important distinctions when assessing a question about an agreement to disarm.
What it means for prediction markets
- Read the decline in points: the reported change is 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours, not a 6.0% relative fall.
- Separate price from evidence: the 7.0% reading captures market pricing; the supplied reporting provides no independent explanation for the shift.
- Keep the outcome precise: the contract concerns agreement to disarm by December 31, not necessarily completed disarmament by that date.
- Volume is only part of the context: $1.7M traded does not, by itself, establish current market depth or explain the repricing.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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