Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting priced at 7.0% on Polymarket, up 4.3 points, on $431K traded

Rate-cut odds rise from a low base

Polymarket priced a Federal Reserve rate cut by its December 2026 meeting at 7.0%, up 4.3 percentage points, with $431K traded, in the supplied market update published Oct 29, 2026, at 2:09 PM ET. Despite the increase, the price still assigned a low probability to the outcome.

The supplied summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore offers no clear fresh catalyst for the repricing, and the material does not establish what drove traders to raise the odds.

Reading the market snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker measures probability-point changes over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, with updates every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot dated 29 Oct 2026, 17:42 UTC.

The tracker ranks moves by their absolute size, rather than relative percentage gains, according to predictionbubbles.net. That distinction matters for a low-priced outcome: the reported increase here is 4.3 percentage points, not 4.3%.

The supplied tracker excerpt explains its methodology but does not display the specific Fed contract’s figures or settlement terms. The 7.0% price and $431K trading figure come from the supplied headline; the material does not specify the period covered by that volume or provide order-book depth.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: Traders marked the rate-cut outcome higher, but its 7.0% price remained low.
• The catalyst is unconfirmed: The available material supports a repricing story, not a conclusion that new Federal Reserve information caused it.
• Volume is incomplete context: The $431K traded figure does not, by itself, establish liquidity or explain the move.
• Contract wording matters: Without the settlement terms, the supplied material is insufficient to assess precisely how the December 2026 deadline would be applied.