Fed path priced meeting by meeting: December hike at 82%, October hold at 71%

Different meetings, different expectations

DeFi Rate’s late Oct. 15 board showed a stronger expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the Dec. 9 meeting than at the Oct. 28 decision. The readings, observed between 10:21–11:16 PM ET and summarized in the Oct. 16, 2026, 12:09 AM ET update, point to a meeting-specific outlook rather than a single expectation for the Fed’s next move.

According to that DeFi Rate board summary, the Dec. 9 meeting stood at 82% for a hike and 20% for a hold. For Oct. 28, the ordering was reversed: a hold registered 71%, against 30% for a hike. Those displayed pairs exceed 100%, so they should not be presented as normalized probability distributions.

The supplied defirate.com excerpt gives a separate reading: 84% for a hold and about 2% for a cut. It does not identify the meeting associated with those figures, limiting any direct comparison with the October and December snapshots.

The excerpt also lists a Polymarket last-traded price of 15.5¢, without identifying its associated outcome. According to DeFi Rate, $100 at that price would return $645 if correct, before fees. The site cautions that the available purchase price may differ from the last trade.

What it means for prediction markets

• Meeting dates matter: The supplied snapshot favors an October hold and a December hike; treating those as one generic Fed forecast would obscure the distinction.
• Displayed readings need context: The October and December outcome pairs total more than 100%, while the separate 84% hold reading lacks a meeting label.
• Last trades are not executable quotes: The 15.5¢ figure and illustrative $645 return do not establish the price or payout available to a new buyer.