Fed October hold strengthens to 87%, with Kalshi's own two October contracts 1 point apart

October hold leads the pricing

A Federal Reserve hold is the leading outcome for the Oct. 28 meeting on DeFi Rate’s board. Observed Oct. 16 between 7:42 and 7:44 AM ET, the board showed 87% for a hold and 14% for a hike, according to DeFi Rate.

The same outlet put the probability of a cut at about 2%. Those displayed figures exceed 100% in total, so they should not be read as a single, normalized probability distribution.

Kalshi’s decision market priced a hike at 12.5%, compared with the board’s 14% reading. The supplied snapshot establishes a difference between those figures, but does not include an earlier observation showing how much expectations have changed.

Last trade versus purchase price

DeFi Rate also listed a Polymarket last-traded price of 13.5¢, while cautioning that the available purchase price could differ. Its displayed illustration said $100 would return $800 if correct, before fees, at the last-traded price.

What it means for prediction markets

• A hold remains the clear favorite: The 87% reading places it well ahead of the displayed hike and cut probabilities.
• Price comparisons need care: The board’s 14% hike figure and Kalshi’s 12.5% decision-market reading are distinct observations; the supplied material does not establish why they differ.
• Execution can differ from the snapshot: Polymarket’s 13.5¢ figure reflects a last trade, not necessarily the price available to a new buyer. The illustrated return also excludes fees.