Fed October hold firms: hike odds down to ~16%

October hold remains the favorite

As of Oct 11, 2026, at 12:54 PM ET, Kalshi/Polymarket pricing put an Oct. 28 Federal Reserve rate hike at approximately 15.5–16.5¢, down 2 percentage points this week. A hold stood at roughly 84–85%, leaving unchanged rates as the clear market favorite.

According to defirate.com, the probability of a hold was 84%, while a cut was about 2%. Those figures reinforce the tilt toward no change, although the supplied quotes should not be treated as a single, synchronized probability distribution.

December carried substantially stronger hike expectations. Pricing for a hike at the Dec. 9 meeting was approximately 73–75%, making it the likelier hike meeting compared with October.

The distinction between a displayed trade and an executable price matters. According to defirate.com, Polymarket’s 16.5¢ figure reflected the last trade, and the price available to buyers could differ. The outlet also displayed an illustrative $645 return on $100 if correct, before fees; that illustration should not be read as a guaranteed return at the quoted purchase price.

What it means for prediction markets

• The October move favors a hold: Hike pricing fell 2 percentage points this week, while hold probabilities remained around 84–85%.
• Timing is the central contrast: The approximately 73–75% December hike probability was markedly higher than October’s, indicating a distinction between near-term inaction and later tightening.
• Quote conventions matter: Last-traded prices, current buying prices and pre-fee payout illustrations are different measures. The supplied snapshots do not establish that all outcomes were priced simultaneously.