Fed October hold firms at 84% on Polymarket ($32.1M traded); December hike at 75%

Polymarket traders are favoring an October pause by the Federal Reserve, with an unchanged rate priced at 84% in a market with $32.1 million traded, according to rg.org. A 25-basis-point increase stands at 17%, while a cut is at 1%. The prices were recorded at 1:03 a.m. ET on Oct. 12, 2026.

Rate expectations shift toward December

The next Fed decision is scheduled for Oct. 28 at 2 p.m. ET. On Sept. 16, the central bank voted 12-0 to raise its target range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking its first increase since July 2023.

Expectations for another October increase have fallen sharply. According to rg.org, CME FedWatch put the probability at 70.9% on Sept. 29, before it dropped to 17% by Oct. 2 following the September jobs report. Polymarket now prices a December hike at 75%, reflecting expectations that the second increase will come later.

Inflation and Fed communication are next

Wednesday’s September consumer price index release, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is the next major event. Consensus forecasts call for annual inflation of 3.6%, compared with 3.4% in August, when energy prices were 16.3% above their year-earlier level.

A separate Polymarket inflation market, with $155K traded, narrowly favors a higher reading: 3.7% is priced at 44%, against 43% for 3.6%, according to rg.org. The outlet reports that outcomes of 3.8% or higher collectively carry about a 9% probability.

Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak in Bangkok on Thursday, after the inflation release. With the Fed’s pre-meeting blackout beginning Saturday, that appearance is a near-term opportunity to clarify the policy outlook. Rg.org’s analysis argues that a reading of 3.8% or higher, accompanied by a clear signal from Warsh, would be needed to materially revive expectations of an October increase; that is the outlet’s assessment, not Fed guidance.

What it means for prediction markets

• Timing is the central distinction: The 84% October hold price and 75% December hike price indicate expectations of a pause followed by further tightening, rather than an end to increases.
• Two events could drive repricing: Wednesday’s CPI release and Warsh’s Thursday remarks arrive before the Saturday blackout.
• The markets differ substantially in trading activity: The rate-decision market has $32.1 million traded, versus $155K for the inflation market. Their prices capture related but distinct expectations.
• Prices are not certainties: The quoted October outcomes total 102%; they should be read as reported market prices rather than a normalized probability forecast.