Fed October hike odds tick up to ~19%

October hike probability edges higher

The probability of an October Federal Reserve rate increase edged up to approximately 19%, according to CME FedWatch figures cited by Barron’s/WSJ. The update was published on Oct 10, 2026, at 12:54 AM ET.

The shift followed hawkish remarks from Waller and Musalem. The supplied summary does not include their comments or the earlier October probability, limiting any assessment of the size of the repricing.

December remained the more likely month for a hike in the cited figures, with CME FedWatch showing an 83% probability. That contrasts with October, when an increase was still the less likely outcome.

The summary also placed Kalshi and Polymarket at approximately 15.5¢ each, but cuts off before identifying the relevant contracts. With the Barron’s page text unavailable, those prices cannot be confidently matched to the October FedWatch reading.

What it means for prediction markets

• October tightening remained a minority expectation: The approximately 19% FedWatch probability signals higher odds, not a shift toward a hike as the most likely outcome.
• Timing matters: The 83% December figure makes the distinction between October and December central to interpreting the reported expectations.
• Cross-platform comparisons remain incomplete: Without the Kalshi and Polymarket contract details, the approximately 15.5¢ prices do not establish a directly comparable gap with FedWatch.