Fed increase rates by 25 bps after October meeting priced at 4.5% on Polymarket

October rate-increase odds fall

Polymarket priced a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase after the October meeting at 4.5% as of Oct 24, 2026, at 2:09 PM ET. The supplied market snapshot showed a decline of 3 percentage points over 24 hours and 8.0 points since Oct. 21, with $14.4M traded.

The price indicates a low market-implied likelihood of that specific outcome. The supplied material does not identify a news event, economic release or Fed communication responsible for the decline.

Trading activity and data limits

According to predictionbubbles.net, the most-traded finance contract at its latest refresh was Polymarket’s question on whether Fed interest rates would remain unchanged after the October 2026 meeting, with $18.4M traded. That is a separate contract from the 25-basis-point increase market; the supplied source does not give its probability.

PredictionBubbles says it aggregates prices from Polymarket and Kalshi and refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the venues continues between updates. Its finance page listed 186 open markets: 19 from Kalshi and 167 from Polymarket.

The outlet distinguishes total traded volume from probability movement. The $14.4M figure therefore describes accumulated trading activity, not the amount traded during the latest decline or the strength of conviction behind the current price.

What it means for prediction markets

• The repricing is outcome-specific: The 4.5% reading concerns a 25-basis-point increase, not every possible October Fed decision.
• Other outcomes remain unquantified here: The supplied figures do not establish how the remaining probability is distributed across unchanged rates or other decisions.
• Timing and contract terms matter: PredictionBubbles updates every 15 minutes and cautions that related contracts across venues can differ in wording, resolution rules and deadlines.