Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting priced at 2.5% on Polymarket, up 0.3 points, on $904K traded

December Fed hike contract edges higher

A Polymarket contract on whether the Fed will increase interest rates by 50+ basis points after the December 2026 meeting was priced at 2.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, with $904K traded, in the supplied Oct 28, 2026 snapshot published at 7:54 PM ET.

The price places that outcome at a low market-implied probability despite the upward move. The accompanying news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes, leaving no fresh reported catalyst to explain the change.

Reading the market snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, its finance board reports probability changes over the last 24 hours and refreshes data every 15 minutes. Trading on the underlying venues is continuous, so a displayed snapshot can lag subsequent transactions.

PredictionBubbles says it tracks 179 open finance markets: 14 from Kalshi and 165 from Polymarket. Its coverage includes Fed decisions, inflation, GDP, recession questions, and index and commodity levels.

For context, the board’s highest-volume finance contract at its latest refresh concerned whether no Fed rate cuts would happen in 2026, with $9.2M traded on Polymarket, according to PredictionBubbles. That is a different question from a 50+ basis-point increase after the December 2026 meeting; the supplied material does not give its probability.

PredictionBubbles also cautions that related contracts can have different wording and settlement rules. Its figures reflect prices published by the venues, rather than a fixed forecast of the eventual Fed decision.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is modest: A 0.3-percentage-point increase leaves the December 2026 outcome priced at 2.5%.
• Volume and probability describe different things: The $904K figure measures total trading, not the likelihood of a large rate increase.
• No fresh catalyst is established: The supplied news check does not support attributing the repricing to a new headline.
• Timing and contract terms matter: The board refreshes every 15 minutes, and related Fed markets should not be treated as interchangeable without checking their wording and settlement rules.