Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting priced at 73.5% on Polymarket, down 3.0 points, on $2.1M traded

A Polymarket contract on a 25-basis-point Fed interest-rate increase after the December 2026 meeting was priced at 73.5%, down 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $2.1M traded, according to PredictionBubbles. The decline reduced the market-implied likelihood of that specific outcome, while leaving it above 50%.

December rate contract in focus

The figures accompany an Oct. 30, 2026 update published at 6:39 AM ET. The summary identifies the finance board’s latest crawl as Oct. 30 at 10:41 UTC, covering 194 open markets and $167.5M in traded volume.

The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the December contract’s decline. PredictionBubbles says macro contracts can respond to economic releases, Fed communications and market movements, but it provides no specific explanation for this repricing.

A broader view of rate expectations

According to PredictionBubbles, its finance coverage includes 17 markets from Kalshi and 177 from Polymarket. The board aggregates questions about monetary policy, inflation, GDP, recession outcomes, and index and commodity levels, with updates every 15 minutes.

The board’s highest-volume finance contract at the latest refresh concerned whether 2026 would pass without any Fed rate cuts. That Polymarket market had $9.3M traded. Its question is distinct from whether the Fed delivers a 25-basis-point increase after the December 2026 meeting; the supplied material gives no probability for the no-cuts contract.

PredictionBubbles displays venue-published prices rather than accepting wagers or holding funds. It also cautions that related contracts across venues can have different wording and settlement rules, limiting direct comparisons.

What it means for prediction markets

• The move is outcome-specific: The 3.0-point decline applies to the December 25-basis-point increase contract, not necessarily to every possible Fed decision.
• Volume and probability measure different things: The $2.1M figure represents total traded volume; it is not a measure of certainty that the outcome will occur.
• Timing matters: PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes, while the underlying venues trade continuously, so the displayed 73.5% is a snapshot.
• Contract terms matter: Comparisons with other Fed markets require checking the precise question and resolution rules, particularly across Polymarket and Kalshi.