Fed Hike-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Sep-Oct-Dec) priced at 27.0% on Polymarket, up 9.0 points, on $159K traded

Polymarket’s contract for a Fed hike followed by two pauses across the September, October and December decisions was priced at 27.0%, up 9.0 percentage points, with $159K traded, according to the supplied market headline published Oct 29, 2026 · 7:54 PM ET.

The figures show a higher market-implied probability for that specific sequence, rather than for a rate increase alone. The supplied material does not identify a fresh Fed announcement or other policy development explaining the change.

What the market snapshot establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers dashboard measures changes over 24 hours using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records a venue snapshot taken on 29 Oct 2026, 23:48 UTC, with updates every 15 minutes.

The dashboard ranks moves by their absolute size in probability points, not relative percentage changes. Trading volume provides separate context and does not determine a market’s position in the ranking.

Limits of the available evidence

The supplied page explains the dashboard’s methodology but does not include the individual Fed contract entry. Consequently, the 27.0% price, 9.0-point increase and $159K traded figure come from the accompanying headline, rather than a visible contract-level record in the source extract. The headline does not specify the period covered by the volume figure.

There is also a timing ambiguity: the headline describes September, October and December as the “next three decisions,” despite its Oct 29, 2026 publication date. Without the contract’s full terms or resolution details, that wording should not be treated as confirmation that all three decisions remained ahead.

What it means for prediction markets

• The sequence matters: The quoted price concerns a hike followed by two pauses, not a standalone probability of a Fed hike.
• Repricing is not an identified catalyst: The reported 9.0-percentage-point increase establishes a price change; the supplied evidence does not explain what drove it.
• Volume leaves questions open: The $159K figure does not, by itself, establish market depth or how much trading accompanied the move.
• Contract terms are essential: The mismatch between the publication date and the “next three decisions” label makes the precise decision dates and settlement rules important to interpreting the price.