Fed cut rates 1 time priced at 3.1% on Kalshi, up 0.6 points, on $1.3M traded

Exactly-one-cut contract edges higher

Kalshi’s contract for exactly one Federal Reserve rate cut was priced at a market-implied probability of 3.1%, up 0.6 percentage points, with $1.3M traded, according to the supplied market update published Oct 27, 2026 · 11:24 PM ET. The increase left that outcome at a low implied probability despite the accumulated trading volume.

The accompanying summary describes PredictionBubbles’ “other” markets board as unchanged at its Oct. 28, 02:59 UTC reading and places the exactly-one-cut contract in a finance category. The supplied material does not specify the contract’s measurement period or settlement conditions, limiting what can be inferred about the Fed policy path it covers.

Board context and data limits

According to predictionbubbles.net, the board tracks 27 open markets: 25 on Kalshi and 2 on Polymarket. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues is continuous. Probability changes represent movement over the previous 24 hours; volume represents total trading where the venue makes that information available.

The board’s volume ranking is separate from its ranking by absolute probability movement. Its most-traded listed contract at the latest refresh was the Kalshi question on whether tech layoffs in 2026 would exceed those in 2025, with $31.5M traded, according to predictionbubbles.net. The supplied page text does not independently display the Fed contract’s price or volume, so those figures rest on the accompanying market update rather than a visible contract row.

What it means for prediction markets

• A modest upward move, not a high-probability outcome: The 0.6-percentage-point increase brought the exactly-one-cut contract to 3.1%.
• Volume and probability measure different things: The $1.3M traded is cumulative activity, not a measure of current liquidity or confidence in the outcome.
• Contract wording remains essential: Without the measurement period and resolution rules, the price cannot establish a broader forecast for Fed cuts.
• Refresh timing matters: PredictionBubbles republishes venue data every 15 minutes, so its displayed reading can differ from a continuously traded Kalshi price.