Elise Mertens wins priced at 74.0% on Kalshi, up 19 points, on $1.9M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the Mertens contract among its biggest upward moves and its most-active sports markets, in a sports markets category distinct from…
Mertens contract advances on Kalshi
The Kalshi contract for an Elise Mertens win was priced at 74.0%, up 19 probability points, with $1.9M traded, in the update published Oct 19, 2026, at 3:24 AM ET.
According to PredictionBubbles, the Mertens contract appeared among the largest upward movers and the most-active sports markets on its movers board. Those placements capture two different measures: the change in the market’s implied probability and the amount of trading.
How the board measures the move
PredictionBubbles measures price changes over 24 hours and refreshes its board every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page identifies its venue-data snapshot as 19 Oct 2026, 07:04 UTC.
The movement rankings use probability-point changes rather than relative percentage gains. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect that ranking; the most-active list separately ranks markets by 24-hour traded volume.
The page describes a ranking universe of 2,060 markets lasting longer than 14 days, excluding same-week fixtures to prevent rapid moves toward settlement from dominating. It also requires open markets to have a valid 24-hour price comparison.
The supplied material does not identify the opponent, event, settlement terms or a catalyst for the Mertens repricing. It therefore supports a report on changing market prices and activity, but not an explanation of why traders moved the contract higher.
What it means for prediction markets
- The move is 19 probability points, not a 19% relative gain. The 74.0% price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a confirmed result.
- Price movement and activity are distinct signals. The $1.9M traded adds context, but does not by itself establish order-book depth or explain the repricing.
- Contract details remain important. Without the event and settlement terms, the supplied figures cannot establish precisely which Mertens outcome traders were pricing.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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