Early window settles: Patriots rout Raiders, Packers rout Bears

The early NFL window on Oct 11, 2026 ended with two decisive results: New England defeated the Raiders 45-17, while Green Bay beat the Bears 31-7.

Patriots deliver on favorite status

Drake Maye accounted for five touchdowns as the Patriots won in Foxborough, according to Reuters. New England’s 28-point margin put an emphatic finish on a matchup in which prediction markets had favored the Patriots.

Pregame pricing placed New England at approximately 62% on Kalshi and 64% on Polymarket. The Patriots’ victory matched the direction of both markets, with Polymarket assigning them a slightly higher chance of winning.

Green Bay’s 24-point victory supplied the other result in the early-window update published at 4:54 PM ET. The supplied material does not include comparable pregame pricing for the Packers, so it does not establish whether their win confirmed or defied market expectations.

What it means for prediction markets

• New England’s favored outcome materialized: Both cited platforms priced a Patriots win above 50% before kickoff.
• The platforms differed modestly: Polymarket’s approximate 64% probability was 2 percentage points above Kalshi’s approximate 62%.
• Score margins are not probability calibration: These results establish who won, but a single game cannot determine how well the pregame probabilities were calibrated.