Dollar near 18-month high; Fed hold pricing firms

Dollar strength and Fed expectations

The dollar was near an 18-month high as pricing for an October Federal Reserve hold firmed, according to Reuters. The report placed inflation data among the market’s immediate focal points.

Prediction markets assigned an 84-85% probability to the Fed leaving rates unchanged in October, according to the supplied summary. That makes a hold the clear favorite, though not a settled outcome.

The pricing snapshot was published on Oct 11, 2026 at 11:54 PM ET. CPI is due Wednesday, putting an inflation release ahead of traders assessing the October decision.

The Reuters page text was unavailable. The supplied material does not identify the prediction-market venues or give an earlier probability against which to measure the reported firming.

What it means for prediction markets

• A hold leads: The 84-85% probability is the available benchmark for October Fed expectations, not a guarantee of the decision.
• CPI is the next test: Wednesday’s release provides a point for tracking whether hold pricing strengthens or weakens.
• Detail is limited: Without venue-level pricing or a prior reading, the size and breadth of the shift cannot be established.