Democrats win the Senate race in Maine priced at 60.0% on Kalshi

Troy Jackson’s Maine Senate contract on Kalshi stood at 60.0%, down 4.0 probability points, with $4.7M traded, according to the supplied market snapshot published Oct 25, 2026 · 7:39 AM ET. The figures describe election pricing, not a confirmed Democratic victory in Maine.

PredictionBubbles’ movers board placed the Jackson contract among declining political markets, according to the supplied summary. The source material does not identify a news event, poll or other catalyst behind the decline.

How the move is measured

According to PredictionBubbles, its board compares market-implied probabilities over 24 hours and updates every 15 minutes using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi. The supplied page records its venue data retrieval as 25 Oct 2026, 11:10 UTC.

The rankings measure absolute changes in probability points rather than relative percentage changes. Volume provides context but does not affect a contract’s position in the ranking. The board covers 2,017 markets lasting longer than 14 days and excludes markets without a valid 24-hour comparison.

What the snapshot leaves open

The supplied headline provides Jackson’s price, decline and traded volume, but the accompanying page extract does not include his individual market card. It therefore does not establish the period covered by the $4.7M figure or provide the contract’s settlement terms.

Those limits matter when interpreting the repricing. A 60.0% market-implied probability still puts the priced outcome above an even chance, while the 4.0-point decline indicates a weaker assessment than a day earlier—not an election result.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level differ: Jackson’s contract declined over the comparison window but remained priced at 60.0%.
• Turnover is not liquidity: The reported $4.7M traded does not, by itself, establish current order-book depth or explain the move.
• The catalyst is unverified: The provided material supports a report of repricing, not a conclusion about what drove it.
• Resolution remains separate: Neither the movers listing nor the price establishes that Democrats have won the Maine Senate race.