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Darian Mensah win the Heisman Trophy priced at 21.0% on Kalshi, down 2.0 points, on $2.1M traded

PredictionBubbles' sports board, unchanged on its Oct. 28, 13:26 UTC read, lists the Mensah Heisman contract among its traded sports markets, in a sports markets…

Darian Mensah’s Kalshi contract to win the Heisman Trophy was priced at a 21.0% implied probability, down 2.0 percentage points over 24 hours, with $2.1M traded. The figures accompanied the Oct 28, 2026 · 9:54 AM ET report.

According to PredictionBubbles, its sports board was unchanged at the Oct. 28, 13:26 UTC reading. The supplied material does not identify a news event or sporting development behind the decline.

Where the contract sits

PredictionBubbles aggregates 514 open sports markets across Kalshi and Polymarket: 188 from Kalshi and 326 from Polymarket. Its embedded display features the 300 largest markets by traded volume, while the full board covers all 514.

The site separates activity from price movement. Its volume rankings measure total trading, while its movers list ranks absolute probability changes over the last 24 hours. Mensah’s $2.1M figure therefore describes trading activity, not the scale or direction of the latest repricing.

Reading the snapshot

According to PredictionBubbles, both exchanges feed a pipeline refreshed every 15 minutes, although trading on the venues is continuous. The 21.0% reading is consequently a published snapshot rather than a guarantee of the price available afterward.

PredictionBubbles displays exchange prices and does not accept wagers, hold funds or offer accounts. It also cautions that related contracts across venues may have different wording and resolution rules; the supplied material includes no comparable Polymarket price for Mensah.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A lower implied chance: The 2.0-point decline indicates traders marked down Mensah’s likelihood of winning the Heisman Trophy over the measured 24 hours.
  • Volume is not conviction: The $2.1M traded establishes activity in the contract, but does not by itself explain the price move or establish available liquidity.
  • Timing and terms matter: The 15-minute publication cycle can lag ongoing trading, and cross-venue comparisons require checking contract wording and resolution rules.
PredictionMarketsKalshi

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/sports/

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