Dan Osborn win the Senate race in Nebraska priced at 24.0% on Kalshi, down 4 points, on $1.3M traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board lists the independent Osborn's Nebraska Senate contract among its downward political moves, in a political/election category — it has…
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Independent Dan Osborn’s contract to win the Senate race in Nebraska was priced at 24.0% on Kalshi, down 4 probability points, with $1.3M traded, in the supplied Oct 22, 2026 · 11:24 AM ET update. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract appeared among the downward moves in its political/election category.
A 24-hour repricing
PredictionBubbles measures changes over 24 hours using prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The supplied board snapshot was read from the venues on 22 Oct 2026, 15:14 UTC, and the service refreshes its data every 15 minutes.
The decline is measured in probability points, not as a relative percentage change. It indicates a lower market-implied probability of an Osborn victory than a day earlier; it does not establish that his underlying electoral prospects changed by the same amount.
What the board establishes—and leaves open
According to PredictionBubbles, the ranking covers 1,989 markets that remain live longer than 14 days. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, and ranking depends on the absolute probability-point move rather than trading volume or liquidity.
The supplied material does not identify a Nebraska-specific news event, poll or announcement behind Osborn’s decline. Nor does it specify the time period covered by the $1.3M trading figure or provide order-book depth. Those gaps limit what can be concluded about the cause and strength of the repricing.
What it means for prediction markets
Direction is clear, causation is not: Osborn’s Kalshi price fell 4 points over the board’s 24-hour measurement window, but the material provides no documented catalyst.
Volume is context, not proof of liquidity: The reported $1.3M traded does not establish how much trading accompanied the decline or how deep the market was.
The snapshot is time-sensitive: With updates every 15 minutes, the 24.0% reading describes the supplied update rather than a fixed election forecast.