Carson Benge win NL ROTY priced at 20.0% on Kalshi, up 5.0 points, on $806K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board, unchanged on its Oct. 28, 08:46 UTC read, lists the Benge rookie contract among its upward sports moves, in a sports markets category…
Carson Benge’s Kalshi contract to win NL ROTY was priced at 20.0%, up 5.0 probability points, with $806K traded, according to the supplied market update. PredictionBubbles listed the contract among its upward sports moves.
The summary describes the movers board as unchanged at its Oct. 28, 08:46 UTC reading. The supplied PredictionBubbles page carries a later venue-data timestamp of 28 Oct 2026, 09:17 UTC, but its extracted text does not include Benge’s individual market entry.
How the move is measured
According to PredictionBubbles, the board measures changes over 24 hours and refreshes every 15 minutes using prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. Benge’s reported gain is therefore a change in probability points, not a 5.0% relative increase.
The supplied board covers 2,043 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days. Rankings depend on the size of the probability change, rather than trading volume or liquidity, and exclude markets without a valid 24-hour comparison.
What the figures leave open
The $806K traded figure provides activity context, but the supplied Benge update does not specify its measurement period. It also provides no order-book information or explanation for the repricing.
Neither the summary nor the extracted page identifies a Benge-specific news catalyst. The available evidence establishes a higher market price, not why traders changed their assessment or whether the move will persist.
What it means for prediction markets
- Direction and level are distinct: Benge’s contract rose 5.0 points, while its reported implied probability remained 20.0%.
- Volume does not establish liquidity: The $806K figure alone does not show how much trading could occur near the quoted price.
- Snapshot timing matters: The summary and extracted page have different timestamps, and the later extract does not independently confirm Benge’s quote.
- The catalyst remains unreported: The materials support a repricing story, not a conclusion about a change in Benge’s underlying award prospects.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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