Brazil bans prediction markets nationwide

Brazil has banned prediction markets nationwide under Resolution 5,298, prohibiting derivative contracts tied to sports, politics, gaming, cultural events and social outcomes, according to HackerNoon. The outlet reports that platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi have shut down across the country.

A broad restriction on event contracts

Banco Central do Brasil and the National Monetary Council published the resolution, citing investor protection and market integrity. According to HackerNoon, regulators also raised concerns that arbitrage and speculative activity could damage investors’ interests and the public interest.

The measure reaches beyond sports betting to encompass political and other nonfinancial outcomes. For prediction-market participants, that breadth is central: the restriction covers several categories of event contracts rather than a single platform or type of wager.

Diverging regulatory approaches

Brazil becomes the third Latin American country to ban prediction markets, after Argentina and Colombia, according to HackerNoon. Portuguese regulators also blocked access to Polymarket earlier this year. The outlet cites Polymarket’s own documentation as showing that the platform is blocked in more than 30 countries.

The United States presents a different regulatory conflict. Individual states have sought to restrict prediction markets, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has challenged those efforts. According to HackerNoon, the CFTC sued Arizona, Illinois and Connecticut over restrictions affecting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

What it means for prediction markets

• Access is the immediate issue: HackerNoon reports nationwide shutdowns of Polymarket and Kalshi in Brazil following the ban.
• The scope extends across event categories: Resolution 5,298 covers sports, politics, gaming, cultural events and social outcomes, limiting the relevance of shifting between those contract types.
• Jurisdiction matters: Brazil’s prohibition, restrictions elsewhere and the CFTC’s challenges to US state action show that event contracts face substantially different regulatory treatment across markets.