Bitcoin slips under $82K as Polymarket reprices overnight

Bitcoin traded below $82,000 during the overnight session before recovering, while Polymarket participants lowered the probabilities attached to two year-end upside targets. According to The Agent Times, citing Alpaca data, BTC/USD finished the five-minute bar ending at 03:00 UTC on October 13, 2026, at $82,824.1515, down 1.094590% over 24 hours.

A recovery within a weaker session

The six-hour period beginning at 21:00 UTC on October 12, 2026, started at $82,983.285 and included a low of $80,942.813, leaving Bitcoin down 0.191766% by the observation time. Over the full 24-hour window, the starting price was $83,740.77 and the high was $84,265.365. Alpaca recorded aggregate volume of 7.667181193 BTC across 288 five-minute observations, according to The Agent Times.

The shorter windows showed a rebound. Bitcoin gained 0.204637% over 30 minutes from $82,655.0085. Over one hour, it rose 0.567855% from $82,356.486, after touching $82,312.66. That recovery did not erase the losses across the longer observation periods.

Year-end contracts shift lower

At 03:00 UTC, Polymarket’s contract on Bitcoin reaching $95,000 by December 31, 2026, carried a 37.5% “Yes” probability, versus 43.5% six hours earlier, according to The Agent Times. Its 24-hour volume was $11,902.39, with liquidity of $87,089.69. The equivalent $100,000 contract fell to 26.5% from 28.5%, with $9,303.97 in volume and $89,056.59 in liquidity.

The downside contract moved in the opposite direction: the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $70,000 by December 31, 2026, increased to 38.5% from 34.5%. The Agent Times reported 24-hour volume of $7,243.29 and liquidity of $65,767.20 for that market.

All three year-end contracts use Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle data for resolution and expire no later than 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2027, under their respective rules. Those settlement inputs differ from the Alpaca BTC/USD data used to describe the spot-price moves.

What it means for prediction markets

• The repricing favored downside risk: over six hours, the $95,000 probability declined by six percentage points, the $100,000 probability fell by two points, and the $70,000 probability rose by four points.
• A short-term rebound did not reverse the broader shift: Bitcoin recovered over the final hour while the year-end upside contracts remained below their six-hour baselines.
• Resolution details matter: these contracts concern reaching or dipping to specified levels by December 31, 2026, rather than simply Bitcoin’s closing price at year-end.
• Market probabilities are not spot forecasts: the venue-reported figures describe pricing in particular contracts, not proof of what Bitcoin will do next.