Bitcoin be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 priced at 3.0% on Kalshi, up 2.0 points, on $1.8M traded
No significant new platform headline in the last 30 minutes; news search recirculated only items already used today, taken by website-only batches, or on the banned list…
Bitcoin threshold odds rise to 3.0%
Kalshi’s market on whether Bitcoin will be above $149,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 was priced at 3.0%, up 2.0 percentage points, with $1.8M traded in the supplied update published Oct 26, 2026 at 10:54 PM ET. The move lifted the implied likelihood, but the outcome remained priced as unlikely.
The accompanying news-search summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It reported only recirculated items already used that day, handled in website-only batches or excluded by a banned list. The supplied material therefore establishes no fresh news catalyst for the repricing.
Reading the crypto board
According to predictionbubbles.net, its crypto listings show market-implied probabilities, changes over the last 24 hours and total traded volume where available. The probability is the price assigned to a yes-or-no outcome—not Bitcoin’s spot price—and the volume figure is not a measure of trading during the latest move.
The site said it tracked 269 open crypto markets: 79 from Kalshi and 190 from Polymarket. Its data refreshes every 15 minutes, although trading on the underlying venues is continuous. That distinction matters when interpreting a published snapshot rather than a live exchange price.
According to predictionbubbles.net, the largest crypto market by traded volume at its last refresh concerned Bitcoin exceeding $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, with $13.5M traded on Kalshi. That is a separate threshold and deadline from the $149,999.99 contract; the tracker also cautions that related markets can have different wording and resolution rules.
What it means for prediction markets
- A rise, not a high-probability signal: The 2.0-point gain left the Bitcoin outcome at just 3.0%.
- Volume needs context: The $1.8M represents total traded volume, not necessarily money traded during the repricing.
- No established catalyst: The supplied news summary does not connect the move to a significant new platform announcement.
- Contract details matter: Different thresholds, deadlines and resolution rules limit direct comparisons between Bitcoin markets.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/crypto/
Date & time:
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