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Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026 priced at 4.2% on Polymarket, down 0.1 points, on $1.8M traded

Quiet quarter-hour — no significant new platform headline in the last 15 minutes (news search surfaced only recirculated items already struck today: the Taiwan block,…

Bitcoin record-high odds edge lower

Polymarket’s market on whether Bitcoin will reach an all-time high by December 31, 2026 was priced at 4.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, with $1.8M traded in the snapshot published Oct 17, 2026 at 10:54 AM ET.

The accompanying news summary reported no significant new platform headline over the preceding 15 minutes. It therefore provides no fresh catalyst to explain the modest change in pricing.

Reading the crypto board

According to predictionbubbles.net, its crypto tracker updates every 15 minutes and reports probability changes over the previous 24 hours. Those prices represent market-implied odds of a specified outcome—not Bitcoin’s spot price.

The tracker lists 263 open crypto markets: 67 on Kalshi and 196 on Polymarket. Its coverage includes price thresholds, ETF decisions, regulation and protocol events, with markets ranked by traded volume.

At its latest refresh, the largest crypto market by volume was Kalshi’s question on whether Bitcoin would be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, with $11.8M traded, according to predictionbubbles.net. That is a separate proposition from Bitcoin setting an all-time high by December 31, 2026; the threshold and deadline should not be treated as interchangeable.

What it means for prediction markets

  • A low implied probability: The 4.2% price places the record-high outcome at low market-implied odds. The 0.1-percentage-point decline is a small adjustment, not a substantial repricing.
  • Volume is not conviction: The $1.8M figure measures total trading activity, rather than how much money exclusively supports either outcome.
  • Contract details matter: PredictionBubbles cautions that related markets across venues can differ in wording and resolution rules. Comparisons require more than matching the underlying cryptocurrency.
  • The snapshot has limits: The tracker refreshes every 15 minutes while the venues trade continuously, so displayed odds may lag subsequent trades.
PredictionMarketsPolymarketBitcoinElections

Sources & attribution

  1. [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/crypto/

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