Between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 priced at 15.5% on Polymarket, up 10.5 points, on $422K traded

Polymarket traders priced the prospect of between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 at 15.5%, up 10.5 percentage points, with $422K traded, in the market update published Oct 24, 2026, at 2:24 PM ET.

Earthquake contract draws attention

According to predictionbubbles.net, the earthquake contract appeared among the highlighted movers on its board, which tracks changes in market-implied probabilities over 24 hours. The supplied material does not identify a new seismic event or other specific catalyst for the repricing.

The board’s venue data were read on 24 Oct 2026 at 18:11 UTC. PredictionBubbles refreshes its figures every 15 minutes, drawing prices from Polymarket and Kalshi.

What the ranking measures

According to predictionbubbles.net, the ranking covers 1,969 markets with durations longer than 14 days. It excludes resolved contracts and those without a valid price comparison from 24 hours earlier, and orders eligible markets by the absolute size of their probability-point change.

That methodology separates price movement from trading activity: volume does not determine a contract’s position in the movers ranking. The $422K traded provides context for the earthquake contract, but the supplied update does not establish its order-book depth or explain what drove the buying.

What it means for prediction markets

• A substantial repricing, not a seismic finding: The 10.5-point increase records a change in traders’ pricing; it does not independently establish a change in earthquake risk.
• The outcome remains below even odds: Despite the rise, the contract’s quoted probability is 15.5%.
• The catalyst remains unverified: Without a documented trigger or order-book detail, the material does not show whether the move reflects new information or trading dynamics.