Best AI on Dec 31, 2026 — Grok priced at 2.1% on Kalshi, down 0.1 points, on $2.1M traded

Grok was priced at 2.1% on Kalshi in the market asking which AI will be best on Dec 31, 2026, down 0.1 percentage points, with $2.1M traded, according to the PredictionBubbles market snapshot published Oct 25, 2026, at 10:09 AM ET.

The supplied news summary identified no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes. It therefore provides no fresh news catalyst to explain the small decline in Grok’s implied probability.

Reading the market snapshot

According to predictionbubbles.net, its technology-market data pairs implied probabilities with changes over the last 24 hours and total traded volume. The $2.1M figure is cumulative trading activity, not a measure of money newly committed during the latest price move.

PredictionBubbles refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates. The reported 2.1% should therefore be read as a snapshot rather than a continuously updated quote.

Scope and resolution matter

The aggregator says it currently tracks 53 open technology markets: 13 from Kalshi and 40 from Polymarket. It also cautions that related questions across venues can have different wording and resolution rules.

The supplied material does not include the criteria for determining the “best AI” or the prices of competing outcomes. That limits what can be concluded about Grok’s relative position beyond its reported low implied probability.

What it means for prediction markets

• A small downward move: Grok’s 0.1-percentage-point decline leaves its quoted probability at 2.1%; the supplied news summary offers no new headline explaining that change.
• Volume is not conviction: The $2.1M traded measures total activity, not net support for Grok or the depth available at the current price.
• Check the contract definition: Without the resolution criteria, the price cannot be treated as a general assessment of AI capability.
• Allow for refresh timing: PredictionBubbles’ 15-minute update cycle means its displayed probability may differ from a subsequent Kalshi quote.