Best AI on Dec 31, 2026 - ChatGPT priced at 8.0% on Kalshi
Down 0.4 points on $2.9M traded.
ChatGPT was priced at an 8.0% probability in Kalshi’s market on the best AI on Dec 31, 2026, according to the supplied PredictionBubbles snapshot published Oct 25, 2026, at 9:54 AM ET. The probability was down 0.4 percentage points, with $2.9M in total traded volume.
A lower price, with limited context
PredictionBubbles defines its probability-change figure as the move over the preceding 24 hours. The decline therefore indicates a modest weakening in market expectations for ChatGPT, rather than a 0.4% relative drop.
The supplied material does not identify competing outcomes, explain how “best AI” will be determined or provide the contract’s resolution rules. It also offers no specific news catalyst for the change, leaving the price movement without an accompanying explanation.
Reading the snapshot
According to predictionbubbles.net, its technology board aggregates prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and refreshes every 15 minutes. The venues trade continuously, so the published figure is a periodically updated snapshot rather than a continuously refreshed exchange quote.
The site describes traded volume as a cumulative figure where the venue publishes it. Accordingly, the $2.9M should not be read as trading activity during the same 24-hour period as the probability decline.
PredictionBubbles also cautions that related questions on different venues can have different wording and resolution rules. Any comparison with another AI market would therefore require more than matching its headline to this Kalshi contract.
What it means for prediction markets
- The signal is narrow: The 8.0% price reflects market expectations for ChatGPT under this particular contract, not a general assessment of its capabilities.
- Resolution criteria are essential: Without the definition of “best AI,” the supplied material cannot establish which benchmark or decision process will determine the outcome.
- Volume and movement measure different things: The $2.9M is total traded volume; the 0.4-point decline covers the preceding 24 hours.
- Timing matters: PredictionBubbles refreshes every 15 minutes, so subsequent trading may differ from the published snapshot.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/tech/
Date & time:
Full attribution under the DMCA, 17 U.S.C. § 512: an original Infiniti Intelligence report summarizing and linking to the publishers named above. All rights in the underlying reporting remain with them. Rights holders may request correction or removal via the contact address at infiniti.w3ai.io.
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