Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting priced at 98.2% on Polymarket, up 0.7 points, on $156K traded
PredictionBubbles' finance board, on its Oct. 29, 02:41 UTC crawl at 183 open markets with $161.3M traded, lists the Bank of England November-hike contract among its…
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A Polymarket contract on a 25-basis-point Bank of England interest-rate increase after its November 2026 meeting was priced at 98.2%, up 0.7 percentage points over 24 hours, according to PredictionBubbles. The contract had recorded $156K in traded volume. Those figures describe market expectations, not an announced policy decision.
A near-certain market price
The listing appeared in a snapshot published Oct 28, 2026 · 10:39 PM ET. The accompanying summary cites PredictionBubbles’ Oct. 29, 02:41 UTC crawl, which covered 183 open markets with $161.3M traded.
The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the Bank of England contract’s move. It provides no accompanying policy statement or economic release explaining why traders increased the implied probability.
Reading the broader board
According to PredictionBubbles, its finance board aggregates contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket, refreshing published data every 15 minutes. It reports market-implied probabilities, changes over the previous 24 hours, and total traded volume where available. Its movement rankings use absolute probability changes, while its volume rankings measure cumulative trading activity.
The supplied page separately reports 184 markets, comprising 14 from Kalshi and 170 from Polymarket—a different count from the crawl cited in the summary. It identifies the Polymarket contract asking whether there will be no Fed rate cuts in 2026 as the most traded finance market at its last refresh, with $9.2M traded.
PredictionBubbles describes itself as an information service displaying venue prices, rather than a platform that accepts wagers, holds funds or offers accounts. It also cautions that related contracts across venues can have different wording and resolution rules.
What it means for prediction markets
The price reflects a strong expectation, not certainty. The Bank of England contract’s 98.2% implied probability remains a tradable estimate rather than confirmation of the November decision.
Movement and volume tell different stories. The 0.7-point rise measures the daily repricing; $156K represents total traded volume, not the amount traded during that rise.
Timing and contract terms matter. The board republishes data every 15 minutes, while venue prices can change continuously. Cross-venue comparisons also require attention to wording and resolution rules.