Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement priced at 27.8% on Polymarket, down 17.2 points, on $149K traded

The Polymarket contract on whether the Bank of Canada will leave its overnight-rate target unchanged at the October interest rate announcement was priced at 27.8%, down 17.2 percentage points over 24 hours, with $149K traded. According to PredictionBubbles, the contract ranked among the largest downward moves in its finance category.

The figures accompanied the Oct 21, 2026 · 8:24 AM ET update. PredictionBubbles’ supplied board snapshot lists its venue-price collection time as 21 Oct 2026, 12:10 UTC; the service refreshes its data every 15 minutes.

A repricing of the no-change outcome

The decline signals a substantial reduction in the market-implied probability of an unchanged overnight-rate target. The supplied material does not identify a catalyst for the move or provide prices for alternative Bank of Canada decisions, so it does not establish how traders divided their expectations between other outcomes.

The $149K traded adds activity context, but the supplied material does not establish the contract’s order-book depth. Trading volume and liquidity are distinct considerations when assessing how much weight to place on a price move.

How the board measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the board compares probabilities over 24 hours and ranks changes by their absolute size in percentage points—not by relative percentage changes. Volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect the ranking.

The snapshot covered 2,002 markets with lifespans longer than 14 days across Polymarket and Kalshi. Only open contracts with a valid day-earlier comparison qualify. That makes the Bank of Canada listing a signal of repricing within the board’s screened universe, rather than a comprehensive ranking of every contract on either venue.

What it means for prediction markets

• No change lost ground: The 27.8% price and 17.2-point decline indicate weaker market pricing for an unchanged Bank of Canada overnight-rate target.
• The alternative remains unspecified: The supplied data do not show which other rate outcome gained the most support.
• Activity is not depth: The $149K traded does not, by itself, establish how resilient the quoted probability would be to additional orders.
• Timing matters: These figures describe a snapshot on a board refreshed every 15 minutes, not a fixed forecast of the October decision.