Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026 priced at 5.9% on Polymarket, down 3.4 points, on $1.2M traded

Avengers contract falls to 5.9%

Polymarket’s contract on whether Avengers: Doomsday will be the top-grossing movie of 2026 was priced at 5.9%, down 3.4 percentage points, with $1.2M traded in the supplied market update published Oct 22, 2026 · 10:54 PM ET.

The update identifies a decline in traders’ assessment of the film’s chances, but does not establish a cause. Its accompanying news summary reported no significant new platform headline in the preceding 30 minutes; the search had surfaced only previously handled material.

What the data establishes

According to predictionbubbles.net, its movers tracker measures probability-point changes over 24 hours, using prices from Polymarket and Kalshi refreshed every 15 minutes. The supplied page records a venue-data snapshot of 23 Oct 2026, 02:40 UTC.

That methodology distinguishes a change in probability points from a relative percentage decline. It also treats trading volume separately from price movement: the rankings reflect the size of the repricing, rather than the amount of money traded.

The supplied tracker excerpt does not include an individual entry for Avengers: Doomsday, so the contract-specific figures come from the supplied headline. The material also does not specify the period covered by the $1.2M volume figure or provide the contract’s detailed settlement criteria.

What it means for prediction markets

• Lower market-implied chances: The 5.9% price and 3.4-point decline indicate a weaker assessment of the film’s prospects of finishing first, not a confirmed change in its box-office outlook.
• No established news catalyst: The supplied material does not connect the repricing to a new film-related development.
• Volume needs context: The $1.2M traded figure does not establish how much trading accompanied the decline or how much liquidity was available.
• Resolution details remain important: Without the contract’s settlement criteria, the supplied material does not establish precisely how “top-grossing movie of 2026” will be determined.