Arkansas wins priced at 95% on Kalshi, up 63 points, on $988K traded
PredictionBubbles' movers board ranks the Arkansas win contract as the day's joint-largest upward move, in a sports markets category distinct from the lead — a contract…
The Arkansas win contract on Kalshi was priced at 95%, up 63 probability points over 24 hours, with $988K traded, according to PredictionBubbles’ movers board. The summary accompanying the Oct 17, 2026 · 11:09 PM ET report placed it in a tie for the day’s largest upward move.
A sharp move, with limited event detail
The Arkansas contract sits in the sports category. The supplied material does not identify the opponent, competition or settlement terms, nor does it explain what triggered the repricing. The figures therefore establish a substantial change in market pricing without establishing its cause.
The board’s supplied snapshot records venue data collected on 18 Oct 2026, 03:15 UTC. According to PredictionBubbles, the service draws prices from Kalshi and Polymarket and updates its rankings every 15 minutes.
What the ranking measures
PredictionBubbles ranks changes over 24 hours in probability points, rather than relative percentages. Trading volume and liquidity provide context but do not affect a contract’s position in the ranking. Arkansas’s 63-point gain and $988K traded are consequently separate measures of price movement and activity.
The board covers 2,026 markets with lifetimes longer than 14 days and excludes same-week fixtures to keep rapid settlement-related swings from dominating. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify. Its displayed table contains the top 150 of 434 markets that moved at least one probability point.
What it means for prediction markets
- Price is not a result: The 95% reading reflects market-implied probability, not confirmation that Arkansas has won.
- Activity and depth differ: The $988K traded adds context, but the supplied material does not establish order-book depth or explain the move.
- The ranking has boundaries: The joint-largest upward move applies to the board’s eligible markets, not necessarily every sports contract on Kalshi.
- Contract details remain important: Without the specific event and settlement terms, readers cannot fully assess what the Arkansas price represents.
Sources & attribution
- [1]Predictionbubbles (predictionbubbles.net)https://predictionbubbles.net/markets/movers/
Date & time:
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