Antonelli to win F1 Drivers Championship at 95% on Kalshi, down 2 pts, on $1.8M traded

Antonelli’s market-implied chance of winning the F1 Drivers Championship stood at 95% on Kalshi, down 2 probability points, with $1.8M traded, according to PredictionBubbles. The tracker included the championship contract among the day’s downward moves.

A decline from a high probability

The two-point fall reflects a lower market assessment over the preceding 24 hours, although the contract still priced an Antonelli championship as highly likely. The supplied material does not identify a racing development or other catalyst behind the change.

The report was published on Oct 17, 2026, at 9:39 AM ET. PredictionBubbles’ source page says its venue-price snapshot was collected on 17 Oct 2026, at 13:38 UTC, with updates every 15 minutes.

How the tracker measures movement

According to PredictionBubbles, the rankings compare absolute changes in implied probability over 24 hours, expressed in probability points rather than relative percentages. Trading volume provides context but does not determine a market’s position in the movement rankings.

The tracker covers 2,000 markets lasting longer than 14 days across Kalshi and Polymarket, excluding same-week fixtures. Only open contracts with a valid 24-hour comparison qualify, limiting the rankings to markets where a day-over-day change can be measured.

What it means for prediction markets

• Direction and level tell different stories: the contract moved lower, but its 95% implied probability still indicates a strongly favored outcome.
• The change is two probability points, not a 2% relative decline. That distinction is central to how PredictionBubbles compares market moves.
• Volume does not establish the cause: the reported $1.8M traded adds activity context, but the supplied material does not establish order-book depth or explain the repricing.