Anthropic valuation hit $3.0T by Dec 31 at 14.5% on Polymarket

Anthropic contract slips

Polymarket traders assigned a 14.5% probability to Anthropic reaching a $3.0T valuation by Dec 31, according to the supplied PredictionBubbles market summary, published Oct 17, 2026, at 8:39 PM ET.

The contract was down 1 percentage point, with $1.4M traded on the finance board. PredictionBubbles defines its displayed probability changes as moves over the preceding 24 hours and its volume figures as total traded volume, rather than daily turnover.

What the board shows—and leaves open

According to predictionbubbles.net, its finance board aggregates 195 open markets: 174 from Polymarket and 21 from Kalshi. The site refreshes its data every 15 minutes, while trading on the underlying venues continues between updates.

The supplied material does not include the Anthropic contract’s detailed resolution criteria or identify news behind the decline. The 14.5% reading therefore describes traders’ pricing of the stated outcome, not a reported valuation for Anthropic or an explanation of why expectations shifted.

What it means for prediction markets

• The threshold remains a minority-priced outcome: The 14.5% probability puts Anthropic reaching a $3.0T valuation by Dec 31 well below an even chance in this contract.
• Volume and momentum measure different things: The $1.4M figure represents cumulative trading, while the 1-point decline describes the probability’s 24-hour movement.
• Timing and contract terms matter: The board updates every 15 minutes, and the supplied material does not establish exactly what evidence would qualify the valuation threshold for resolution.